On October 24, 2026, British Columbia elected a BC Conservative majority — the party's first election win since 1928. This briefing combines our final campaign poll with Elections BC's riding results and Census data to explain not just the count, but the movement behind it: who switched, who stayed home, and why.

The short version

  • The NDP lost a quarter of its 2024 vote while the Conservative vote held. NDP votes fell by about 213,000 (−24%) compared with 2024; the Conservative vote barely moved. The Conservatives won 63 of 93 seats with 48.1%, the NDP 28 (37.4%), and the Greens 2 (11.0%).
  • About 10 in 100 of 2024's NDP voters switched to the Conservatives, and roughly 6 went Green — while many others simply stayed home.
  • Turnout fell from 55% to 48% of registered voters, dropping in every region.
  • Most of the change was in Metro Vancouver and the Southwest — the region accounts for 72% of the NDP's lost votes and 16 of the 20 seats it lost. The NDP fell most in higher-income ridings and ridings with more immigrants.
  • The switchers are not locked in. Only 31% of NDP-to-Conservative switchers say they would never vote NDP again, against 77% of loyal Conservative voters.
  • The NDP did worse among voters under financial strain, and the most precarious were the least likely to vote at all.

How the poll performed

Our final poll — 1,959 British Columbians surveyed online over the last five days of the campaign — put the Conservative lead at 11.1 points. The actual margin was 10.7, within about a point. The six public polls fielded October 20–23 showed leads of just 4 to 6 points.

The full briefing below walks through the methodology, precision by region, the region-by-region results, who voted for whom, the issues that moved the vote, the federal connection, where voters stand, and eight takeaways.